In recent years, the volume of Uzbekistan’s national economy has almost tripled to $147 billion. Uzbekistan, the largest country in Central Asia by population (about 37 million people), is experiencing a major energy transformation.
In recent years, Uzbekistan, by using active economic diplomacy, privatization, significant progress, and the implementation of domestic and strategic reforms, such as reducing state energy subsidies and encouraging citizens to use green energy, has saved energy and facilitated investment in renewable sources.
Uzbekistan has also attracted nearly $35 billion in direct investment in its energy sector. Electricity production has increased by nearly 40% to 86 billion kWh.
Uzbekistan has prioritized energy efficiency in its 2030 roadmap, with goals for economic growth, investment, and sustainability. The government has also announced plans to focus on solar and wind power plants.
In a way, Uzbekistan’s energy strategy is now based on several key axes: increasing production, rebuilding old infrastructure, intelligent import management, and bringing new hydroelectric and solar capacities to the grid, as well as strategic attention to the nuclear industry.
Opportunities
Natural Gas
The country also allocates more budget for oil and gas exploration, production, and refining, as well as attracting foreign capital for the modernization of thermal and hydroelectric power plants. But gas production continues to decline or stabilize at lower levels. So that gas exports are not a priority for the country.
Early 2026 reports indicate a sharp drop in gas production of 15% in the first quarter of the year.
The country has moved from heavy dependence on natural gas, generating about 80-85 percent of its electricity from gas-fired thermal power plants, to diversifying its energy portfolio.
Despite efforts to build a 200-megawatt gas-fired thermal power plant in Samarkand province, the discovery of large natural gas reserves in Karakalpakstan, and cooperation on gas-based infrastructure with China, energy production from natural gas extraction has fallen sharply by 15 percent in the first quarter of 2026.
Coal production has also fallen from 1.2 million tons to 1.1 million tons, and Uzbekistan’s oil production has reached 157,300 tons.
With the depletion of old fields, the growth of domestic and industrial consumption, unprecedented pressure has been placed on the electricity grid, power plants, and gas distribution systems. The government has been forced to import gas from Russia and Turkmenistan.
Although gas forms the backbone of the country’s heating system and industrial infrastructure, Tashkent is trying to slow the decline in production by exploring new fields and drilling new wells. Also, despite the change in Uzbekistan’s energy balance, several new energy facilities, including battery storage systems with a capacity of 1,245 MW, were put into operation in December 2025.
Nuclear
In 2025, strategic agreements were signed to build the country’s first nuclear power plant with the participation of Russia, including a small nuclear power plant (SMR) and a large power plant.
Construction of the first small reactors has begun, and Uzbekistan, with an annual production of almost 7,000 tons of uranium in 2025, will be among the top five uranium producers in the world for the first time.
In fact, Uzbekistan’s reserves have significant potential, and, with structural reforms and international agreements, it can become an emerging hub for the supply of vital minerals.
Renewable potential
Hydroelectric power generation has declined in recent years, from 10 percent in 2024 to 7.3 percent in 2025. In 2025, due to water shortages, electricity production at Uzbek hydroelectric power plants decreased. Even water inflows to the country have decreased by 35%.
Earlier, Tashkent announced plans to implement 73 hydroelectric projects worth $5.8 billion in order to reduce dependence on gas and coal and increase the sustainability of the energy system. The government is considering a strategic and large-scale shift away from reliance on hydroelectric power plants.
Also, the deployment of micro-hydro generators on thousands of kilometers of canals and irrigation systems in the country, the import of power stations from China, and the construction of pumped storage power plants are important.
13 hydroelectric power plants with a total capacity of 114 megawatts are scheduled to be commissioned by 2026. Hydropower accounts for (only 10-12% of total generation), making its development a key factor in ensuring the sustainability of the energy system and reducing dependence on gas and coal.
Growing demand, industrialization, economic growth, increasing electricity demand, and decreasing gas production have made energy transformation necessary. Also, Excellent solar radiation and wind potential allow the country to achieve ambitious goals.
The shift to renewable energy is a key priority for the government. In 2025, solar and wind generation nearly doubled to more than 10.5 billion kWh.
Tashkent is rapidly moving towards a green economy, and the commissioning of 15 solar power plants, 5 wind power plants, and 35 small hydropower plants will play a key role in reducing dependence on fossil fuels and strengthening energy sustainability.
Since the beginning of 2026, the volume of electricity generated by solar and wind power plants has reached 4 billion kWh.
In January-March 2026, the country produced 40% more electricity than in the same period last year. The first green hydrogen project was launched in 2025.
Tashkent has several regional initiatives, including the creation of a “green trade corridor”, the launch of the potential for green electricity exports to Europe through regional corridors, and the transformation into an energy hub.
Threats and challenges
Despite the modernization efforts, the imbalance, aging infrastructure, the long life of thermal power plants and energy losses in distribution networks are the main obstacles to optimal efficiency. The region’s declining water resources, the risk of import dependence, demand outpacing supply, and declining efficiency of old fields are also important.
Disruptions in transit through the Strait of Hormuz, conflicts in the Middle East, and the US-Israeli war against Iran could also slow down energy trade and the process of investment and repair of domestic infrastructure in Uzbekistan.
Outlook
The need for huge investments (tens of billions of dollars), the need to rethink the structure of energy supply and transmission, and the need to reduce dependence on traditional energy sources in Uzbekistan will remain important.
Despite moving towards solar and wind energy, Uzbekistan lacks the infrastructure and storage solutions to fully rely on renewable energy. Therefore, in the short term, Tashkent will continue to rely on fossil fuels to meet demands.
With foreign investment in numerous projects with the ADB, World Bank, EBRD, and ACWA Power, and ambitious goals of achieving 27 gigawatts of renewable capacity, it is predicted that by 2030, wind, hydroelectric and solar energy will generate more than half of Uzbekistan’s electricity.
War and Geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East, can increase concerns about energy security. However, in such conditions, renewable energy will be considered as a reliable alternative to reduce dependence and strengthen the resilience of energy systems.
In fact, a combination of old and new energy, thermal, renewable, nuclear, and hydrogen energies, along with grid modernization and storage, can ensure the country’s energy security. Also, if the trend of investment continues, the country could also become an exporter of green energy and reduce its dependence.
Transitioning from a fossil-based model to a diversified and sustainable portfolio by having new energies, Uzbekistan has the potential to become a model for energy transition in the region. Infrastructure and multiple challenges remain serious. But progress has been significant and, by exploiting opportunities, there is a positive outlook.
Farzad R. Bonesh
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By: Farzad Ramezani Bonesh (ONE Team)
Farzad Ramezani Bonesh is a writer, senior researcher, and analyst focusing on the Middle East and South Asia. He has written research articles, short analyses, and journalistic pieces in both Persian and English. He has also appeared on international outlets such as Al-Jazeera, RT, and Al-Araby among many others.
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