Since Tajikistan’s independence in 1991, the development of the energy sector has been one of the country’s top priorities. Significant measures, such as a large-scale increase in power generation capacity, reforms and modernization, digitalization of the energy system, and the introduction of modern technologies and artificial intelligence, are being implemented to achieve energy independence and optimal use (of energy).
Important strategic documents, such as the National Development Strategy of Tajikistan until 2030, the “Medium-Term Development Plan of Tajikistan for 2026–2030,” the “Green Economy Development Strategy for 2023–2037,” and the “State Investment Plan for 2026–2030,” as well as the implementation of socio-economic development, have placed significant emphasis on the development of the country’s energy sector.
Part of the Tajik government’s commitment to implementing reforms through 2030 is focused on increasing productivity, enhancing attractiveness for investment, making progress in reforming tariff policies, and increasing resilience in the energy sector.
Last year, the Power Sector Development program for 2026–2030 and the establishment of the National Water Council were also approved in order to “ensure energy security.”
In Tajikistan’s Domestic Investment Plan for 2030-2026, the largest volume of investment, including 37 projects worth $6.4 billion, is allocated to the energy sector.
In addition, in 2025, Tajikistan attracted $1.5 billion to implement 13 state investment projects in the energy sector, such as the reconstruction of the Sarband Hydroelectric Power Plant, the Nurek Hydroelectric Power Plant, and the CASA-1000 regional electricity transmission project.
The 35% increase in foreign investment in Tajikistan in 2025, Tajikistan’s leading position in attracting investment in the region in June 2026, positive economic growth of 8.1% from January to May 2026, and the continued construction of the large Rogun Hydroelectric Power Plant provide a basis for attracting more domestic and foreign investment to the energy sector.
Over the past decade, through active economic diplomacy, Tajikistan has presented itself as one of the agenda-setters in international water and climate forums. Tajikistan has also been able, through its leading economic diplomacy, to connect a broad range of regional and international institutions and actors from China, Russia, the European Union (including Italy), the United States, Iran, India, and other countries to its industrial development and investment attraction strategy.
For example, in 2025, Tajikistan attracted financing for two major energy projects: the construction of the Rogun Hydroelectric Power Plant and the CASA-1000 (electricity) transmission line. Also, in June 2026, the World Bank allocated $1.8 billion to Tajikistan for the Rogun Hydroelectric Power Plant for fiscal years 2026–2032.
In addition, Tajikistan considers participation in the Unified Energy System of Central Asia and the implementation of the CASA-1000 project, as key factors in developing the clean energy market and strengthening energy ties between Central and South Asia.
The CASA-1000 project will connect the energy systems of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, leading to the creation of a common electricity market in Central Asia and strengthening regional energy security.
Fossil Fuels
Tajikistan has virtually no significant oil and gas resources. Most of its limited oil resources are located at depths of more than 5,000 meters below ground.
Tajikistan’s potential oil and gas fields are located in the north and particularly in its southwest of the country. Some exploration findings indicate 8.5 billion barrels of oil and 3.22 trillion cubic meters of gas.
In 2025, Tajikistan increased its domestic oil production by 15% to 18,500 tons. Cooperation with foreign companies, especially Chinese companies, has begun in the areas of exploration, extraction, production, and the discovery of hydrocarbon reserves.
Tajikistan used to import most of the fuel it needed (oil, gas, gasoline, etc.) from Kazakhstan, neighboring countries, as Uzbekistan and while 70–80% of its oil imports came from Russia. Given the war in Ukraine and the challenges of importing fossil fuels from Russia, the authorities are improving the reliability of energy supplies, seeking new partners, and supporting the country’s energy security. Recently, Iran and Tajikistan agreed to conclude a long-term contract for the export of petroleum products, the supply of crude oil to Tajikistan’s refineries, and the supply of fuel.
Mines
Tajikistan has more than 800 mines containing rare and precious metals such as copper, silver, gold, lead, lithium, antimony, nickel, tungsten, and vanadium.
Tajikistan has the largest coal reserves among Central Asian countries, estimated at 400 million tons, and coal plays an important role in the country’s energy mix.
Despite its vast mineral resources, many of them remain unexploited. However, with 10 of the 12 strategic and critical minerals required for the global transition, Tajikistan expects further investment from partners such as China under the “State Investment Program for 2026–2030.”
Water and electricity
Tajikistan ranks eighth in the world in terms of hydropower potential, with an estimated 527 terawatt-hours (TWh) per year. Only 5–6% of its hydropower potential is currently utilized. The construction of hydroelectric power plants is one of Tajikistan’s key priorities and could enable the country to achieve energy self-sufficiency.
The main source of electricity in Tajikistan is the Nurek Hydroelectric Power Plant. In addition to the role of smaller power plants, the Rogun Hydroelectric Power Plant, with a generation capacity of 3,780 MW, is also recognized as a key project for Tajikistan’s energy security. In 2025 alone, more than $970 million from the state budget was allocated to the Rogun project.
Following the completion of the first phase of the Nurek Hydroelectric Power Plant reconstruction project, the country’s energy independence will be ensured by September 2027, once 60% of the construction of the Rogun Hydroelectric Power Plant has been completed.
About 60% of Central Asia’s water resources are located in Tajikistan, and Tajikistan’s hydropower potential is three times greater than Central Asia’s total electricity consumption.
Tajikistan exported 1 billion kWh of electricity in the first half of 2026. In addition, the Tajik Parliament approved the financing agreement for the CASA-1000 project, which will become operational in 2027.
Renewable Energy Potential
The increasing demand for electricity has created the need to diversify the energy mix.
98% of the country’s electricity is generated from renewable energy sources, and under the National Strategy for the Development of the Energy Sector, it is planned that 100% of Tajikistan’s electricity will be generated from renewable sources by 2032.
The country has high potential for solar and wind energy. Under its National Development Strategy by 2030, Tajikistan plans to add up to 1,500 MW of solar and wind power capacity.
Tajikistan’s energy sector has significant potential for attracting investment, creating electricity storage systems, and exporting clean electricity to countries in the region.
Some initiatives in Badakhshan are led by the Aga Khan Fund for Economic Development (AKFED). Further investment by actors such as EU institutions, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Japan, Iran, China, and the Asian Development Bank can diversify Tajikistan’s energy mix.
Wind energy is in its early stages of development. Plans such as the $1 billion investment in Tajikistan’s 2,000 MW solar power project, the implementation of floating solar power plants in the country’s reservoirs, the consideration of a project to construct a solid-waste processing plant and generate electricity from waste in Tajikistan, and the increase in renewable electricity generation capacity to 32.2 MW are considered to be in line with energy security, industrial growth, and the “National Development Strategy of Tajikistan.”
The “Dushanbe Technology Hub” project is intended to become a hub for artificial intelligence and green energy development, while also playing a role in strengthening Tajikistan’s energy security. These approaches can provide opportunities for international investment, improve environmental conditions, create jobs, and diversify the energy market.
Threats and Outlook
Tajikistan’s electricity sector is heavily dependent on hydropower. However, due to climate change, glaciers are gradually retreating, and the flow of the Amu Darya River is decreasing.
Tajikistan lags behind in access to clean energy sources such as solar and wind power. Less than 40% of the population uses modern and safe energy technologies. Tajikistan also faces other challenges, including high energy consumption, underdeveloped infrastructure, aging power plants, and energy losses in distribution networks.
Increasing electricity exports and strengthening the interconnection of regional power grids require infrastructure upgrades and the modernization of existing power infrastructure. The need for extensive investment in infrastructure and energy storage, as well as for reducing dependence on traditional energy sources, will also remain important in Tajikistan. To further develop its energy sector, Tajikistan needs institutional reforms, investment, hydrocarbon and mineral exploration, diversification of energy sources—particularly solar and wind energy—attracting investment for new projects, modernization of existing capacities, and stronger international cooperation.
The challenges remain serious. However, with successful diplomatic and economic policies, the country’s progress and the broad opportunities ahead are significant. Indeed, diversification, a mix of conventional and renewable energy sources, together with grid modernization, can ensure energy security and a positive outlook for Tajikistan.
Farzad R. Bonesh
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By: Farzad Ramezani Bonesh (ONE Team)
Farzad Ramezani Bonesh is a writer, senior researcher, and analyst focusing on the Middle East and South Asia. He has written research articles, short analyses, and journalistic pieces in both Persian and English. He has also appeared on international outlets such as Al-Jazeera, RT, and Al-Araby among many others.
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